Welcome to the stretch of primary season that somehow feels like both a marathon and a sprint. On Feb. 3, the Democratic presidential primary will hold its first nominating contest of the election cycle: the Iowa caucuses. It’ll kick off a season of primaries and caucuses, as the Democrats work their way toward their presidential pick. And with back-to-back primaries come back-to-back debates. That’s right, there will be three Democratic debates in the month of February.
Why so many debates in the shortest, and often coldest, month of the year? Because The Democratic National Committee (DNC) plans to hold a debate in every early voting state. (The first of which was held in Iowa on Jan. 14.)
The New Hampshire debate will be on Feb. 7, just a few days after the caucuses and before the New Hampshire primary. The debate — which is the eighth of the 2020 primary cycle — will take place in Manchester, N.H., and ABC, WMUR and Apple News will co-host at St. Anselm College. The following debates will be on Feb. 19 in Las Vegas and Feb. 25 in Charleston.
Seven candidates have qualified for the New Hampshire Democratic debate so far, though the remaining candidates have until 11:59 p.m. on Feb. 6 to make it. The stage will include: former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, billionaire executive Tom Steyer, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
This could also be the last debate without former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The 77-year-old billionaire has pledged to self-fund his campaign and has never hit the debate’s required donor numbers, despite making the polling threshold. But the DNC announced on Friday that starting with the Feb. 19 debate, candidates will no long need to meet a certain number of donors, opening the path for Bloomberg to qualify.
Could the New Hampshire debate actually impact the primary? Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, tells TIME that “you shouldn’t underestimate the volatility of New Hampshire primary voters, even in the last weekend.” He explains that polling suggests a considerable percentage of New Hampshire voters are still decided. “[There’s] a lot of people who will, believe it not, just be tuning in for the week between Iowa and New Hampshire,” he continues. “they might be moved quite a bit by what’s in the news that week.” Like, say, what happens in a debate.
Here’s your complete guide to the upcoming February Democratic debates.
When are the next debates?
The first of the February Democratic debates will take place in Manchester, N.H., at St. Anselm College and be co-hosted by ABC News, WMUR-TV and Apple News. It’ll air live from 8:00 to 11:00 p.m. EST on ABC and stream on on the ABC app, ABC.com and connected devices such as Roku, AppleTV and Amazon Fire TV.
ABC New chief anchor George Stephanopoulos, ABC News managing editor David Muir and ABC News correspondent Linsey Davis will moderate the debate with WMUR-TV political director Adam Sexton and WMUR-TV news anchor Monica Hernandez. ABC co-hosted the third democratic debate back in September, which both Stephanopoulos and Muir also moderated.
The following two February democratic debates will take place on Feb. 19 in Las Vegas and Feb. 25 in Charleston. NBC News, MSNBC and The Nevada Independent will host the ninth debate and CBS News and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute will host the tenth. (Twitter will also be a debate partner).
Why are there so many debates in February?
The onslaught of debates this month may seem unusual, but experts tell TIME it’s actually par for the course this time of the primary. As John Hudak, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, points out, in 2008 Democrats held four primary debates in January and three in February alone. According to UVA’s Center for Politics, former Vice President Al Gore and New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley faced off in nine one-on-one debates during the 2000 primary.
“In general, the parties have been increasing the number of debates they host, especially early in the cycle,” Hans Noel, an associate professor at Georgetown University’s Department of Government, writes in an email. “In 2016, Bernie Sanders complained that there were only six debates scheduled, but historically, six was a lot. The response was to hold even more debates to mollify the complaints from those who felt they didn’t have enough chances to be heard.”
But the end is in sight; well, at least of the primary debates. After February, the DNC has only two more debates scheduled — the last of which will be in April.
How will the primaries affect the debates?
“The most obvious way… is by winnowing the field,” Mia Costa, a professor of government at Dartmouth University writes TIME in an email. “Some candidates should drop out after the New Hampshire election. On the other hand, if the not-so-popular candidates do well, then they may get a boost of confidence going into future debates.”
Whoever wins the Iowa caucuses will likely take heavy fire from his or fellow nominees in the New Hampshire debate. “[P]rimaries can put a bullseye on a candidate. When someone emerges from a primary as a winner, particularly with one gathering momentum, subsequent debates can see other candidates really begin to focus their attacks and contrasts on that person,” Hudak writes in an email.
When primary voting starts, more people will also begin to pay attention to these debates. This gives the February debates more potential to have an impact compared to previous ones, Noel writes. “The results from Iowa will shake up the race, and then some voters will need to re-evaluate their choices. So the debates can trigger that,” he explains.
The DNC’s new delegate rule could shake up future debates. If Bloomberg — or another candidate who hasn’t qualified — wins a primary he or she could appear on stage without having to hit the polling and donor requirements.
Have debates historically impacted primary results? They certainly have the potential to kick up media narratives and viral moments. In 2016, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio notoriously bombed in the New Hampshire debate when former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie highlighted that Rubio kept repeating a line. However, Costa writes that the “excessive and repetitive negative media coverage [of that moment] probably had a bigger impact than just the debate itself.”
Margaret O’Mara, a professor of American political history at the University of Washington, also points to 1984 cycle when Walter Mondale responded to opponent Gary Hart by saying “where’s the beef?” — a reference to a popular Wendy’s commercial at the time — adding that it “helped reinforce a narrative that Hart was more style than substance.”
Which candidates have qualified?
Candidates have until the very last minute to qualify for the New Hampshire debate; they have to to meet the polling and donations threshold by 11:59 p.m. Feb. 6. (The debate is Feb. 7).
Candidates need at least 5% in four DNC-approved polls or 7% in at least two early state polls (New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada). They also need at least 225,000 unique donors with at least 1,000 unique donations in 20 states, U.S. territories or Washington D.C.
But starting with the first of the February Democratic debates, there’s also a third way to make the stage. Candidates who meet a “delegate threshold” may also participate, meaning whoever has at least one delegate for the Democratic National Convention based on the results of the Iowa caucuses.
Beginning with the Nevada debate, qualifications will change again. The DNC announced on Friday that candidates will no longer have to meet a donor requirement, and will instead have to earn at least 10% in four DNC-approved polls or 12% in two polls conducted in Nevada or South Carolina. Candidates will also still be able to qualify if they have at least one delegate. This clears the way for Bloomberg to qualify, who had previously been shut out because he does not solicit donations.
But first we need to make it through the New Hampshire debate. Here’s who has made the stage so far:
Former Vice President Joe Biden, 77
Biden represented Delaware in the Senate from 1973 to 2009 and served as President Barack Obama’s Vice President from 2009 to 2017. He also ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 and 1988.
Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 38
Buttigieg was an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve between 2009 and 2017 and was the mayor of South Bend, Ind., from 2012 to Jan. 1, 2020. Were he to win the Democratic nomination, he would be the first openly gay presidential nominee for a major political party.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 59
Klobuchar was the county attorney for Minnesota’s most populous county, Hennepin County, from 1999 to 2007. In 2006 she became the first woman to be elected senator from Minnesota.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 78
Sanders has represented Vermont in the Senate since 2007 and was Vermont’s sole congressional representative from 1991 to 2007. The self-described democratic socialist ran for the 2016 Democratic nomination and lost to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Billionaire executive Tom Steyer, 62
Steyer founded the hedge fund Farallon Capital in the 1980s and has poured millions of his own money into campaigns calling for President Trump’s impeachment. He launched the political groups NextGen America and Need to Impeach.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 70
Before running for office, Warren taught law, specializing in bankruptcy, and proposed the original idea for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2007 while still teaching at Harvard Law School. In 2012, Warren became the first woman elected to the Senate from Massachusetts.
Entrepreneur Andrew Yang, 45
Yang is known for advocating about the threat of automation. He also founded Venture for America, a nonprofit and fellowship focused on creating jobs in cities across America.
Yang had missed the polling threshold for the January democratic debate and thus did not participate. He will be the only candidate of color on the New Hampshire debate stage unless another candidate qualifies in the next week.
Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard — who was the first Samoan American member of Congress — has the required donations but hasn’t quite hit the polling threshold. Bloomberg, meanwhile, has hit the polling requirements but won’t qualify for the stage because he doesn’t solicit donations. According to The New York Times, the 77-year-old billionaire has already spent more than $200 million on advertising.
Two other Democratic candidates met none of the requirements: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick.
In January, two prominent candidates of color, former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker dropped out of the race. On Jan. 6, Castro endorsed Warren. On Jan. 31, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney also dropped out of the race.
Fifteen other candidates have also dropped out: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Miramar, Fla., Mayor Wayne Messam, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, former West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, California Rep. Eric Swalwell and self-help author Marianne Williamson.
What issues are likely to come up?
The usual Democratic issues of healthcare, climate change and economic inequality will undoubtedly come up in the debate. Not only are these topics important to voters, but they highlight differences between the candidates. Yang and Warren disagree on the use of nuclear energy, for example.
Scala of the University of New Hampshire adds that the opioid crisis — which has hit New Hampshire particularly hard — might receive more attention than in past debates.
Jennifer Victor, an associate professor of political science at George Mason University’s Schar School Policy and Government, tells TIME that if Sanders wins Iowa she expects some candidates to attack him on gun policy. Gun control is not only important to Democratic voters, but also an area where Sanders’s voting history could hurt him. In 2016, Clinton attacked the Vermont senator for voting against the 1993 Brady bill, which mandated federal background checks and instated an interim five-day waiting period on firearm purchases.
The question of electability might also get more attention if Sanders continues to surge. “[I]t depends who’s on stage, who’s ahead in the polls, and how the impeachment trial spins out over the next month. But the debate over what kind of Democrat is best suited to beat Trump — a centrist or a liberal — will likely continue to be the most important question animating all of these contests,” O’Mara writes TIME in an email.
The impeachment inquiry against the President will also loom over the evening. Assuming the Senate trial will be over by next Friday, “Candidates may be asked if they think it was worth it,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, writes in an email. The senators on the stage might also feel the need to justify how they voted.
“It is highly unusual to have the presidential debates playing out against the background of the national controversy over President Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate,” Andrew Sinclair, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of Nonpartisan Primary Election Reform: Mitigating Mischief, writes to TIME in an email. “While the candidates are campaigning for President, we are also seeing a great conflict take place over what exactly the powers of that office are.” Candidates might be asked to share their view of the power of the presidency.
Which candidates are likely to clash onstage?
It’ll depend on what happens in Iowa. “Assuming Sanders does very well in Iowa, he will be expected to do well in New Hampshire as well. So everyone will want to go after him,” Noel writes. “If Klobuchar does better than expected, which is also possible, then she might also try to focus on issues of practical politics vs. ambitious big changes.” If Buttigieg wins, he might follow a similar line.
“We may have some information about who switched to whom in Iowa, which may inform some clashes as well,” he adds.
Warren and Sanders had a notably awkward exchange after the January Democratic debate, when a hot mic picked up Warren confronting Sanders for denying he said a woman couldn’t beat Trump (she says he told her so in 2018). The two progressives also had a few awkward exchanges during the debate itself. However, the pair have been publicly cordial in the past few weeks. Still, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on them, especially if Sanders continues to rise in the polls.
On the other hand, Hudak tells TIME that going forward, he thinks the clashes will really be between Sanders and Biden. He says one possible strategy for Warren could be avoiding the fray, staying on message and hoping to pull voters from the fallout of the arguments.
How are candidates doing in the polls?
Nationally, Sanders has continued to grow as Warren’s support has slightly waned. However, Biden has remained in the lead by at least a few points. Here’s how the candidates who have made the New Hampshire debate stand in national polls, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages on Jan. 30:
- 28.8% Biden
- 22.5% Sanders
- 14.1% Warren
- 6.0% Buttigieg
- 4.8% Yang
- 4.0% Klobuchar
- 2.0% Steyer
As Noel put it, “The polls in Iowa have been all over. The biggest changes have been increases for Sanders and declines for Warren, but we’ll see soon enough if those stick.” Here’s how the candidates who have made the New Hampshire debate stand in Iowa polls, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages on Jan. 30:
- 23.8% Sanders
- 20.2% Biden
- 15.8% Buttigieg
- 14.6% Warren
- 9.6% Klobuchar
- 3.8% Yang
- 3.6% Steyer
The pattern repeats itself in New Hampshire: Sanders has gone up while Warren and Buttigieg have gone down. Notably, Biden has also seen his numbers dip. Here’s how the candidates who have made the New Hampshire debate stand in New Hampshire polls, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages on Jan. 30:
- 26.3% Sanders
- 16.8% Biden
- 14.8% Buttigieg
- 13.5% Warren
- 6.8% Klobuchar
- 4.0% Yang
- 1.8% Steyer
But don’t read too much into these numbers. “The top frontrunners all seem to be within striking distance of one another, especially when you account for the margin of error and the fact that a lot of caucus-goers and [New Hampshire] primary voters are still undecided,” Dartmouth’s Costa writes. Come Monday, we’ll finally have some answers from voters.
